The Padres go to Milwaukee on Thursday afternoon, finishing a three game set versus the Brewers. San Diego has been overwhelmingly one of the worst hitting teams in M.L.B. baseball all season long, but have become hot in the last two games. They scored 10 runs on Sunday after in a win over the Chicago Cubs and then put up an 11 runs in a 11-5 win over the Brewers in the first game of their set on Tuesday night. These games don’t matter in the least to San Diego, every series game from here on in is life-and-death for the Milwaukee Brewers. The loss on Tuesday night dropped them to 65-51 and 2.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the lead in the National League Central. They currently lead for the first wild card spot, also they are only 1.5 games from dropping out of the playoffs all together. They Dropped two straight and need a win in a big way.
- 13-4 in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- 24-8 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- 21-9 in their last 30 vs. National League West.
- 2-5 in Erlins last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- 1-5 in Erlins last 6 road starts.
- 1-5 in Erlins last 6 starts.
- 1-5 in Erlins last 6 starts on grass.
My numbers suggest the Brewers till take down the Padres nearly 75 percent of the time, making Milwaukee a strong play at the moderate favorite price. I’m seeing an average margin of victory of more than 1.5 runs, adding to the lopsided nature of this matchup. My data says Brewers starter Junior Guerra will put up a stellar performance and get the best of San Diego’s Robbie Erlin.
Prediction: MILWAUKEE -160