The finale of a 3-game series between the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals will take place at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C, beginning on Sunday at 1:35 pm EST. The Marlins are in last place within the N.L. East division while the Nationals currently occupy 3rd place and seriously needed some wins in which to stay in the hunt for the postseason. In game 1 of this set on 8-17-2018, the Nationals would get the 8-2 win where they would cash in on the money line (-360) while the over was the play with runs being set at 8 for the game. Max Scherzer (16-5) with ERA of 2.11 would lead the way for the home team as he would pitch 6 solid innings while allowing just 3 hits while also having 7 k’s for the game. While Dan Straily (4-6) would suffer the loss for the Marlins as he would last 6 innings yet giving up 5 runs on 9 hits with 2 homers with an ERA of 4.60 for the game. Bryce Harper and Adam Eaton each went 3-4 with 3 RBI’s combined for the Nationals in the win while Austin Dean would go 1-4 with an RBI for the Marlins in the loss and Miguel Rojas going 1-1 with an RBI as well. The loss was the 6th straight for the fish while the win was the 2nd in a row for Washington.
- 5-1 in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
- 7-1 in Gonzalez’s last eight home starts vs. Marlins
- 16-43 in their last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning record
- 5-14 in their last 19 road games vs. a left-handed starter
My data has the Nationals beating the Marlins in more than 75 percent of simulations for their Sunday, and by an average margin of victory of nearly two full runs. These lopsided numbers make Washington worth the lofty price. The Nationals are 7-2 in home starts by Gio Gonzalez and on a 9-3 overall home spurt.
Prediction: WASHINGTON -230