The Phillies lost by 24 runs in the first game of this N.L. East match-up, but then they won the next two games. They are well out of the playoff race and are actually further back in the Wild Card race than the N.L. East race. Either way New York is playing for next season and they are over 15 games out of first place in their division. The Phillies have gotten back on track after a rough few games, they are right on the heels of the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the N.L. East. Philadelphia did give up 24 runs in the first game of this series facing the Mets, but their pitching staff has been their strength of the club ranking in the top 10 in the Majors in team ERA. Their lineup does not rank in the top 20 in the major league in runs scored, their pitching will be the key for their playoff push.
- 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League East
- 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record
- 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record
- 4-9 in their last 13 vs. National League East
- 18-44 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning record
My numbers see the Mets getting the best of the Phillies in nearly half of simulations for their Sunday meeting, providing a profitable overlay on the substantial road underdog. The Phillies are on a 2-5 slump in home starts by Nick Pivetta, while Mets starter Jason Vargas has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his past seven outings.
Prediction: N.Y. METS +170