Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Sharp angle: Panthers (+4 to +3)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
One of the biggest mistakes recreational bettors make is overreacting to injuries, especially when it comes to big name players. Cam Newton has been shut down for the season and the Panthers will start Taylor Heinicke in his place — wait, who?
Average Joes see an automatic Carolina fade with an unknown backup under center. But not the sharps. As always, they’re capitalizing on public bias. Extract additional value by buying on bad news and selling on good news, as the sharp mantra goes.
This game opened at Falcons -3. Public betting (nearly 65% of bets) pushed Atlanta up to -4. That’s when sharps got down hard on Carolina at an inflated number.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 39.5 to 38)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Public bettors are psychologically biased toward betting overs. If they’re going to bet a total, they want to root for a high-scoring, action packed game and cash in the end. It’s just not fun rooting for missed kicks and long drives that don’t result in points.
However, average Joes are having a hard time with this one because they see two putrid offenses (gotta be an under) and a super low total (it’s gotta go over). As a result, they don’t know which way to go.
The total opened at 39.5. Currently 52% of bets are going under, but 76% of dollars are going under. This signals public indecision, but also heavy smart money.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Sharp angle: 49ers (+5 or +4.5)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
On paper, this looks like a Bears blowout, but if it looks too good to be true, chances are it is.
Chicago opened as a 4.5-point road favorite. Currently 70% of bets are laying the points with Mitchell Trubisky. However, despite this lopsided public betting, the line hasn’t moved too far from the opener.
We’ve tracked eight different steam and reverse line moves on the Niners at either +4.5 or +4. This heavy smart money dropped them down to +3.5 at one point, before some late buyback pushed it back to +4.5 or +5, depending on the book.
The 49ers also enjoy a massive bets vs dollars discrepancy. They’re only getting 32% of bets (making them one of the top contrarian plays on Sunday), but 53% of dollars, further evidence of big sharp wagers grabbing the points, not laying them.